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Email Coordination on NIC Alternative Analysis of China and the 2020 Election

A heavily redacted October 2020 email chain coordinating and discussing a proposed National Intelligence Council alternative analysis of China's activity related to the 2020 U.S. election.

Open full source PDF ↗ 8 pages Mixed source text
01

Purpose and status of the paper

The initiating author said the NIC would publish an alternative-analysis memorandum to put a different perspective on the record without blocking the Intelligence Community's mainline assessment. The author emphasized that it represented only the author and NIO Cyber, not a community consensus.

“we are opting to publish an alternative analysis NIC memo.”
Email body
Source: page 7 ↗
“we are clearly labeling this as alternative analysis and highlighting that it is the perspective of NIO Cyber and myself only.”
Email body; analytic-status caveat
Source: page 7 ↗
02

Alternative assessment of Beijing's activity

In the email's short, non-compartmented formulation, the two authors assessed that Beijing had taken limited exploratory steps to disparage the President and shape voter perceptions before the election. This is an analyst assessment presented as an acknowledged minority view, not a disclosed investigative finding.

“we assess that Beijing has taken some low-level, exploratory steps to denigrate the President and shape voter perceptions ahead of the election.”
Email body; alternative analytic lead
Source: page 7 ↗
“we already know most of you disagree.”
Email body; disagreement caveat
Source: page 7 ↗
03

Replies reflect internal analytic disagreement

Replying participants reported that some NSA and CIA analysts had similar concerns but had not necessarily voiced them in the main coordination process. Those comments describe the participants' perceptions of internal analytic debate and do not independently establish Chinese conduct.

“everyone around the table at NSA had thoughts similar to what I shared at the meeting.”
Email reply; participant's account
Source: page 3 ↗
“I've heard a few other similar comments from some analysts in CIA, though not in the main China office.”
Email reply; participant's account
Source: page 2 ↗